ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021351ZFEB2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02FEB26 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 22.1S 53.1E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, AND HAD 
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 021500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.6S 
66.7E, APPROXIMATELY 426 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE 
NORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(15-20 KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS GFS AND ECMWF 
SHOW STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF 90S INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 72 
HOURS. FURTHERMORE, ENSEMBLE MODELS FAVOR DEVELOPMENT AS INVEST 90S 
TRACKS GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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