ABPW10 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/301500Z-310600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.2S 137.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM 
WEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED TO BE OVER 
LAND IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND MINIMAL EFFECTS FROM LAND INTERACTION. 
GLOBAL MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHERE 98P WILL TRACK, GFS SHOWS IT 
REEMERGING OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WHILE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE 
WESTWARD TRACK AS THE STORM TRAVELS INLAND TOWARD THE KIMBERLY COAST.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.2S 170.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 170.8E, APPROXIMATELY 113 NM 
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
301217Z ASMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH BUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN 
PERIPHERY. A 300917Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD 
WITH A SWATH OF 30 KNOT WINDS THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 
TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL 
MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH 99P MAINTAINING 
AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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