ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/300600Z-310600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291951ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 29JAN26 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 26.9S 171.9E, APPROXIMATELY 262 NM NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., AND 
HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 292100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.2S 137.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM 
WEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. AANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED TO BE OVER 
LAND IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND MINIMAL EFFECTS FROM LAND INTERACTION. 
GLOBAL MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHERE 98P WILL TRACK, GFS SHOWS IT 
REEMERGING OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WHILE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE 
WESTWARD TRACK AS THE STORM TRAVELS INLAND TOWARD THE KIMBERLY COAST.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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