ABIO10 PGTW 291230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/291230Z-291800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291221ZJAN2026// 
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.4S 42.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 42.3E, APPROXIMATELY 113 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 
TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL 
MODELS SHOW 97S TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR 
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH QUICK DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MAKING 
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 291230) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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