ABIO10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/290600Z-291800ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.3S 44.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 42.9E, APPROXIMATELY 139 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 290246Z F17 SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 
29 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 97S TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN 
COAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH STEADY 
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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