ABIO10 PGTW 281830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/281830Z-291800ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.3S 
44.1E, APPROXIMATELY 161 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COMOROS. ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL AND STILL ILL-DEFINED 
AREA OF ROTATION IN THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH NASCENT 
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC). EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF 
BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15KTS), WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C), AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A 
POINT SOURCE ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM 
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS IN A WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING PATTERN. FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STEADY, TO POTENTIALLY RAPID, INTENSIFICATION 
DURING THE APPROACH TO MADAGASCAR. ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL 
FAVORING RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE GFS LAGGING BEHIND SOMEWHAT. 
ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK INTENSIFICATION ALTHOUGH THEY 
AGREE ON A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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