WTPS22 PGTW 280230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P) //
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270221ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S 168.6E TO 17.9S 172.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 171.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT INVEST 
90P CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
LLCC. THE 272128Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A NEARLY SYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL WIND 
FIELD WITH HIGHER WINDS (25-30KTS) ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN BOUNDARY OF 
THE CIRCULATION. STRUCTURALLY THE SYSTEM REMAINS TILTED WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST DELAYING A TIGHTER RADIUS AND 
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, WHILE BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY 
ALIGNED AND INTENSIFYING, OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE LLCC WILL BE 
MIGRATING TOWARD AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40KT) AND 
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR GIVING THIS SYSTEM AN EXTREMELY SHORT WINDOW OF 
INTENSIFICATION AND LIFESPAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONEWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 270230).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
290230Z.
//
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