ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270221ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.2S 160.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3S 159.4W, APPROXIMATELY 492 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY 
(MSI) SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) SHOOTING OFF TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. DEEP FLARING 
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (20-25KTS), AND POOR OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE SUPPORTIVE (27-29C).  GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM KICKING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EDDYING 
SOUTHEAST OF INVEST 90P, WHICH IS BEGINNING TO HOG THE ENERGY IN THE 
SPCZ AND DEEPEN.  AS THE CIRCULATION UPSTREAM DEVELOPS, INVEST 94P IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TRACKABLE CIRCULATION BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.0S 168.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM 
NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY 
(MSI) AS WELL AS A 262145Z METOP-C MHS 89V MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT 
INVEST 90P COALESCING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
OVERSHOOTING TOPS ARE OBSERVED IN THE CURVED FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE 
NORTHEAST PERIMETER, AND CONVECTION IS DEEPENING NEAR THE LLCC. A 
262149Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION WITH 15-
20KT WINDS PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE 
CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER A BELT OF LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR 
(5-10KTS) WITH DECENT OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND STEADY 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITTING FROM 
GRADIENT LEVEL VORTICITY SUPPLIED BY EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED 
WITH A MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION PULSE THAT IS MOVING TOWARDS THE 
DATELINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 270230) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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