ABPW10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.5S 164.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 162.1W, APPROXIMATELY 503 NM 
EAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH 
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A DEFINED CENTER HAS YET TO FORM AS 
THE WIND FIELD REMAINS HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WITH STRONGER WINDS (35-40 
KTS) ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLANK OF THE SPCZ WHILE MUCH 
WEAKER WINDS (5-10 KTS) MAKE UP THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO 
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 94P TRACKING RAPIDLY 
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING AN ASYMMETRIC WIND 
FIELD. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE CONTINUED 
DEVELOPMENT OF 94P COMPARED TO THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, LIKELY 
PICKING UP ON THE PERIPHERAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE 
ZONE RATHER THAN THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFINED CIRCULATION. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.6S 
166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 90P 
TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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