ABPW10 PGTW 260200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/260200Z-260600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.5S 164.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 159.4W, APPROXIMATELY 444 NM WEST 
OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHT 
AREA OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE 
(SPCZ). A 252029Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS THAT A SMALL CUSP OR SHARP WAVE 
FEATURE HAS FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH ALL INDICATIONS INDICATE 
THAT THERE IS NOT YET A FULLY CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). THE ASCAT IMAGE ALSO REVEALS STRONG GALE-FORCE WINDS (35-40 
KNOTS) WINDS ALONG THE NORTH AND EASTERN FLANK OF THE SPCZ, AND LIGHT 
(5-10 KNOTS) WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH AND WESTERN FLANK. THE MOST RECENT 
FRAMES OF VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW SOME LOW-LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE 
DEVELOPING CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY AND 
UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS SHIELD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 
TO 20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND STRONG 
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 94P TRACKING RAPIDLY 
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, WHILE MAINTAINING A HIGHLY 
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AS DEPICTED IN THE CURRENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A RAPID TRANSIT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SPCZ 
AXIS, WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER THE HIGHER WINDS INDICATED IN THE 
ENSEMBLES ARE LIKELY PICKING UP ON STRAIGHT-LINE FLOW AND NOT THOSE 
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH 94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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