WTPS21 PGTW 240230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230221ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 230230). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 
140.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 141.6E, APPROXIMATELY 144 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOWANYAMA INDICATE 
SOUTHERLY WINDS, SUPPORTING A CENTER POSITION OVER LAND. A 232353Z ASCAT 
PASS REVEALS A HIGHLY ELONGATED LLCC, WITH OUTER BANDS EXTENDING WELL 
OUT TO SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COASTLINE. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, FOR DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY TRACK SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN OVER 
LAND. HOWEVER, A BRIEF TRACK BACK OVER WATER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS 
TIME OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
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