WTPS21 PGTW 230230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
055 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S 141.1E TO 15.7S 142.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 141.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.2S 
140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTHEAST OF MORINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY OBSCURED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVENTION BUILDING OVER 
THE CENTER AND VERY WELL-DEFINED FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. RADAR IMAGERY FROM AUSTRALIA SHOWS A 
TIGHTENING VORTEX WITH THE LLCC LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE 
FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS 
AGREE ON CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, WITH ECMWF 
SHOWING THE MOST INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
240230Z.
//
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