ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/221800Z-
231800ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.9S 118.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 118.4E, APPROXIMATELY 619 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA . ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221248Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DISPLACED CONVECTION 
TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION AS WELL AS DEEP CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING 
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION (91S) WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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