ABPW10 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/220900Z-230600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22JAN26 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 24.5S 169.4E, APPROXIMATELY 232 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 220900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.2S 151.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 151.7E, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AND BROAD LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION 
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. A 220206Z 
OSCAT-3 IMAGE SHOWS 30 KTS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS WRAPPING AROUND 
THE SYSTEMS WESTERN FLANK. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA 
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-
28 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
ARE CURRENTLY NOT ALIGNED WITH CONSOLIDATION OR INTENSIFICATION. GFS 
CHARACTERIZES SLOW AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, 
BUT QUICK WEAKENING THEREAFTER. WHEREAS ECMWF IS FORECASTING 90P AS 
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 24. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ILLUSTRATE A 
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO, WITH BOTH GEFS AND ECENS CHARACTERIZING 
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TOWARD 35 KTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.   
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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