ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.9N 145.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22JAN26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 23.5S 166.9E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.6S 148.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM 
EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AND BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION 
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS), WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT ALIGNED WITH 
CONSOLIDATION OR INTENSIFICATION TIMELINE, WITH GFS SHOWING SLOW 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHEREAS ECMWF HAS 90P 
DISSIPATING BY TAU 24. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ILLUSTRATE A SLIGHTLY 
DIFFERENT SCENARIO, WITH BOTH GEFS AND ECENS CHARACTERIZING GRADUAL 
INTENSIFICATION TOWARD 35 KTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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