WTXS21 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3S 118.9E TO 15.0S 121.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4S 118.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.7S 117.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 118.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
444 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 212154Z 89GHZ MWI MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 
DISPLACED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION AS WELL 
AS DEEP CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION (91S) WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
230300Z.
//
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