ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/211800Z-
221800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21JAN26 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EWETSE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 23.9S 44.1E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, 
AND HAD TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 211500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.5S 116.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 117.4E, APPROXIMATELY 518 NM 
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED FROM THE 
PRIMARY AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST, A 211409Z ASCAT PASS 
DEPICTS A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KT WINDS ALONG 
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND VERY WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE 
AREA OF CONVECTION (91S) TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO 
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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