ABPW10 PGTW 211000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/211000Z-220600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201951ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210751ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20JAN26 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 133.0E, APPROXIMATELY 544 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF 
YAP, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 202100) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.3N 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 145.1E, APPROXIMATELY 332 NM 
SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 
TO 25 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). ECENS IS 
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, HOWEVER, THE 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MUCH MORE HESITANT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF 
92W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21JAN26 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 19.1S 161.1E, APPROXIMATELY 334 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF 
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 
40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 210900) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6S 
148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 192 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 
TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL 
MODELS AGREE ON 90P TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY 
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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