ABPW10 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/210300Z-210600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201951ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210152ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20JAN26 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 133.0E, APPROXIMATELY 544 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF 
YAP, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 202100) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.3N 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM WEST 
OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND 
DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS), 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). ECENS IS THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, HOWEVER, THE DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE MUCH MORE HESITANT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF 92W. GLOBAL 
MODELS SHOW 92W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21JAN26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.5S 159.1E, APPROXIMATELY 482 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.8S 151.3E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE 
PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO WARNING 
STATUS.//
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