ABPW10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201800Z-210600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201351ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20JAN26 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.7N 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, AND HAD 
TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 201500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.3N 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 146.6E, APPROXIMATELY 316 NM WEST 
OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND 
DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS), 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). ECENS IS THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, HOWEVER, THE DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE MUCH MORE HESITANT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF 92W. GLOBAL 
MODELS SHOW 92W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.8S 151.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 155.6E, APPROXIMATELY 328 NM 
EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC), EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO INVEST 94P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSERVATIVE IN 
DEVELOPMENT OF 99P, AND ONLY THE GFS SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION ABOVE 35 
KNOTS PRIOR TO REACHING NEW CALEDONIA. BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS 
ENSEMBLES HOWEVER, SUPPORT STRENGTHENING AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE 
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEANCE THAT 99P WITH TAKE 
A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.5S 162.5E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM. 
DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//
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