ABPW10 PGTW 201000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200600Z-210600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200151ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200951ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20JAN26 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.3N 129.1E, APPROXIMATELY 494 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 200300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.3N 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 145.3E, APPROXIMATELY 411 NM 
SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(20 TO 25 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). ECENS 
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, HOWEVER, THE 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MUCH MORE HESITANT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF 
92W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.4S 162.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 162.5E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 
CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING 
BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INVEST 94P WITH A HIGHLY 
ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE SOUTH AND 
NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CENTER HAS BECOME IRREGULAR AND ILL-DEFINED 
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY ACCELERATES POLEWARD. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GREATLY OFFSET BY 
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AND MARGINAL (25-26 C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 94P CONTINUING TO 
TRACK QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN ASYMMETRIC 
WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 989 MB. FOR 
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO 
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST  
AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 191230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.8S 151.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 117 NM 
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR 
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). 
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 99P TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD WITH MARGINAL 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: CANCELLED TCFA AND DOWNGRADED AREA IN  
PARA 1.B.(1) TO LOW.
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