ABIO10 PGTW 200730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/200730Z-210730ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200151ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200721ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20JAN26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 22.9S 58.4E, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 200300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
26.0S 37.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.0S 37.9E, APPROXIMATELY 334 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TOLIARA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND 
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 
TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 TO 28 C). GLOBAL 
MODELS AGREE ON 98S TRACKING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR AS IT 
QUICKLY CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 200730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1)TO HIGH.//
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