ABPW10 PGTW 200600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZJAN2026// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200151ZJAN2026// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191291ZJAN2026// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 20JAN26 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 129.1E, APPROXIMATELY 494 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 200300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 145.3E, APPROXIMATELY 411 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). ECENS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, HOWEVER, THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MUCH MORE HESITANT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF 92W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 162.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 162.5E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 TO 28 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 94P TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED WIND FIELD AS IT ATTEMPTS TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 191230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 151.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 117 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 99P TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD WITH MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN