ABPW10 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200300Z-200600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191951ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191221ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 19JAN26 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 128.1E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 
192100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.3N 
146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 356 NM WEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING 92W, 
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MORE AGREEABLE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF 
DEVELOPMENT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE THAT 92W 
WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.1S 158.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 162.5E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC), WITH DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. 
A 191048Z METOP-C ASCAT REVEALS 18-23 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE 
EASTERN QUADRANT OF 94P. IN ADDITION, A LARGE SWATH OF WINDS UP TO 25 
KTS ARE OBSERVED 112 NM AND DISLOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 
ASSESSED CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KT), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND 
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS SHOW ONGOING SUPPORT FOR 94P TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF 35 
KTS IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 993 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B 
(WTPS21 PGTW 191230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.8S 
151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 346 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THERE IS 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE AGREEANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH GFS AS THE 
SOLE OUTLIER INDICATING DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREAS IN PARA. 1.B.(1) AND PARA. 
2.B.(2) .////
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