WTPS21 PGTW 191230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0S 159.2E TO 22.4S 162.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.1S 159.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.1S 158.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 159.3E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM 
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE 
CENTER. A 191048Z METOP-C ASCAT REVEALS 18-23 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND 
THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF 94P.  IN ADDITION, A LARGE SWATH OF WINDS UP TO 
25 KTS ARE OBSERVED 112 NM AND DISLOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 
ASSESSED CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KT), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND WEAK 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW 
ONGOING SUPPORT FOR 94P TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF 35 KTS IN THE NEXT 
12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
201230Z.
//
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