ABPW10 PGTW 140130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/140130Z-140600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130121ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.8N 131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM WEST 
OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS, A 130025 
METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS AREAS OF ELEVATED WINDS TO THE NORTH AS 
WELL AS A WELL DEFINED AND SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(29-30 C) OFFSET WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO 
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 140130) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.3S 160.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7S 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 563 NM 
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE 
NORTHEAST.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), 
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 
C). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 
NEXT 3-4 DAYS, HOWEVER, THEY ARE CURRENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE 
STRUCTURE OF 94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH 
AND DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO LOW.//
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