WTPN21 PGTW 140130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.8N 132.5E TO 10.9N 129.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.8N 132.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.8N 131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM WEST 
OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS, A 130025 
METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS AREAS OF ELEVATED WINDS TO THE NORTH AS WELL 
AS A WELL DEFINED AND SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) 
OFFSET WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED 
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
150130Z.
//
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