ABPW10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/131800Z-140600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.8N 131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 131.3E, APPROXIMATELY 206 NM WEST 
OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A 
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS AS WELL AS 
FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) OFFSET WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(15-20 KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT 91W 
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES 
ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.3S 160.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9S 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM 
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO 
THE NORTHEAST. A 131111Z METOP-C ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 20 KT WINDS 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), MODERATE EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS 
GENERALLY AGREE ON 94P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS, HOWEVER, 
THEY ARE CURRENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE STRUCTURE OF 94P. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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