ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/101800Z-
111800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101321ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.2S 76.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 76.1E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN 
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VIGOROUS BURSTS OF 
DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE 
POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). MODELS AGREE ON 93S 
TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 101330) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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