WTXS21 PGTW 101330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0S 76.1E TO 16.3S 77.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2S 76.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.0S 76.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 76.1E, APPROXIMATELY 408 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN 
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VIGOROUS BURSTS OF 
DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE 
POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). MODELS AGREE ON 93S 
TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
111330Z.//
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