ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS 100600Z-110600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100021ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.8S 148.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 148.0E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM 
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) AND A 092105Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE A BROAD AND 
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP, PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
SYSTEM. A 091514Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED PRODUCT DEPICTED A BROAD REGION OF 
LIGHT WINDS AT THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION, AND GALE TO NEAR-GALE 
FORCE WINDS ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY, WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS 
(RMW) EXCEEDING 100NM, CHARACTERIZING 92P AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION 
(MD). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND HAVE SHOWN PERSISTENT 
GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND RISING PRESSURE SINCE 1900Z, WHILE 
OBSERVATIONS AT FLINDERS REEF INDICATE FALLING PRESSURES AND STEADY 
NEAR-GALE FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT; THE SYSTEM IS ENSCONCED IN A 
TINY POCKET OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 
KNOTS, HAS GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND IS POSITIONED OVER 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C IN THE CORAL SEA. MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT, MAINTAINING A DISORGANIZED AND 
ELONGATED STRUCTURE AS INVEST 93S TRACKS SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE 
AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. HOWEVER, THE GFS REMAINS A NOTABLE OUTLIER, 
DEPICTING SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION IMMEDIATELY 
PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 100030 COR) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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