WTPS21 PGTW 100100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P) CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5S 148.1E TO 21.9S 144.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 33 TO 38 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.8S 148.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 148.0E, APPROXIMATELY 127 NM 
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) AND A 092105Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE A BROAD AND 
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP, PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 091514Z 
AMSR2 WINDSPEED PRODUCT DEPICTED A BROAD REGION OF LIGHT WINDS AT THE 
CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION, AND GALE TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE 
OUTER PERIPHERY, WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) EXCEEDING 100NM, 
CHARACTERIZING 92P AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION (MD). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS 
FROM WILLIS ISLAND HAVE SHOWN PERSISTENT GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND 
RISING PRESSURE SINCE 1900Z, WHILE OBSERVATIONS AT FLINDERS REEF 
INDICATE FALLING PRESSURES AND STEADY NEAR-GALE FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY 
WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT; THE SYSTEM IS ENSCONCED IN A TINY POCKET OF LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, HAS GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, AND IS POSITIONED OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 
28-29C IN THE CORAL SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT, 
MAINTAINING A DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED STRUCTURE AS INVEST 93S TRACKS 
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. HOWEVER, THE GFS REMAINS A 
NOTABLE OUTLIER, DEPICTING SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION 
IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
110100Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AND 
SLP IN PARAGRAPH 2.//
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