ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/091800Z-101800ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.0N 82.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 82.6E, APPROXIMATELY 178 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS PERSISTENT, CHARACTERIZED BY 
OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND FLARING CONVECTION, BUT REMAINS DISPLACED NORTH 
OF THE LLCC DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. A RECENT 
OBSERVATION FROM POTTUVIL, SRI LANKA AT 091600Z INDICATES WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5KTS AND A SLP OF 1011MB. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KTS, GOOD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 27-28C. 
GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS, FORECASTING A RAPID 
WEAKENING OF INVEST 90B AS ITS CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE 
LANDMASS OF SRI LANKA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.0S 76.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 76.2E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROF. THE 
SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS, 
HOWEVER THE CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED AT THE PRESENT TIME. A 
PARTIAL 091557Z ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS POSITIONED IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF AN ELONGATED REGION OF TURNING. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KTS, GOOD 
UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) 
OF 28-29C. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A LOW-TO-MODERATE CONSENSUS. 
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROJECT A GRADUAL 
WEAKENING TREND, THE NAVGEM REMAINS A NOTABLE OUTLIER, SUGGESTING 
INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MODELS SHOW 
STRONG SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM 
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 23 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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