ABIO10 PGTW 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/091000Z-091800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090951ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.4N 84.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 82.8E, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION JUST NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. A 090712Z 
89GHZ GMI PASS FURTHER EMPHASIZES THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
BEING DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD, 
WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN HINDRANCE BEING THE MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT 
INTENSIFICATION. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS HAVE PROGRESSIVELY SHOWN A WEAKER PEAK INTENSITY OVER RECENT 
RUNS NEVER FULLY REACHING 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO 
LOW. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 091000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.0S 71.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 76.1E, APPROXIMATELY 353 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND BROAD CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A 
TROUGH SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON STEADY DEVELOPMENT 
WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING THE SYSTEM REACHING UP TO 
35 KTS WITHIN AS EARLY AS 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BETWEEN ECMWF 
AND GFS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS 93S 
TRANSITS SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
LOW.//
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