WTIO21 PGTW 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90B) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080951ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 081000). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4N
84.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 82.8E, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION JUST NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. A 090712Z 89GHZ 
GMI PASS FURTHER EMPHASIZES THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING 
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD, WITH A STRONG 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
THE MAIN HINDRANCE BEING THE MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR FROM THE EAST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE PROGRESSIVELY 
SHOWN A WEAKER PEAK INTENSITY OVER RECENT RUNS NEVER FULLY REACHING 35 
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
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