ABIO10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/090600Z-091800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080951ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.4N 84.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 82.8E, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE, A 080421Z 
METOP-C ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A PATCH OF 30KT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY AND 25KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. 
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD, WITH A 
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN HINDRANCE BEING THE MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT COULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION BY TILTING 
THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND DISRUPTING DEEP CONVECTION. BOTH 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD 
SRI LANKA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ESPECIALLY, 
PREDICTING QUICKER AND MORE INTENSE DEVELOPMENT OF 90B. DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS REMAIN RELUCTANT TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM BEYOND 35 KNOTS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 081000) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.0S 71.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 76.1E, APPROXIMATELY 353 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND BROAD CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A 
TROUGH SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON STEADY DEVELOPMENT 
WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING THE SYSTEM REACHING UP TO 
35 KTS WITHIN AS EARLY AS 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BETWEEN ECMWF 
AND GFS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS 93S 
TRANSITS SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REMOVED 12S (JENNA) INFORMATION DUE TO 
FINAL WARNING EXPIRATION.//
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