ABIO10 PGTW 090030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/090030Z-091800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081951ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080951ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 5.2N 86.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 279 NM 
EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE, A 080421Z 
METOP-C ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A PATCH OF 30KT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY AND 25KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. 
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD, WITH A 
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN HINDRANCE BEING THE MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT COULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION BY TILTING 
THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND DISRUPTING DEEP CONVECTION. BOTH 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD 
SRI LANKA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ESPECIALLY, 
PREDICTING QUICKER AND MORE INTENSE DEVELOPMENT OF 90B. DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS REMAIN RELUCTANT TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM BEYOND 35 KNOTS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTIO21 PGTW 081000) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08JAN26 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.8S 88.6E, APPROXIMATELY 587 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 082100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0S 
71.7E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND BROAD CIRCULATION 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (10-15KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), AND GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON 
STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING THE 
SYSTEM REACHING UP TO 35 KTS WITHIN AS EARLY AS 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE 
GUIDANCE BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION AS 93S TRANSITS SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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