ABPW10 PGTW 090030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/090030Z-090600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090021ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.4S 152.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 147.9E, APPROXIMATELY 223 NM 
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
HIGHLY ELLIPTICAL AND BROAD CIRCULATION WITH AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE 
INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN RECENT 
HOURS. A 082223Z METOP-B ASCAT REVEALS EXPANSIVE BELTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS 
WINDS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA 
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS IN 
RECENT HOURS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF GALE-FORCE WINDS, THE CIRCULATION 
IS NOT YET COMPACT OR WELL-DEFINED ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER 
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(30C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND DECENT EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOWS STEADY CONSOLIDATION 
AND CONTRACTION OF THE BROAD WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT 
TRANSITS SOUTHWEST TOWARDS AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 32 TO 37 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTPS21 PGTW 090030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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