ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080751ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080951ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.2N 86.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 279 NM EAST 
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE, A 080421Z METOP-C 
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A PATCH OF 30KT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY 
AND 25KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD, WITH A STRONG 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
THE MAIN HINDRANCE BEING THE MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR THAT COULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION BY TILTING THE STRUCTURE 
OF THE SYSTEM AND DISRUPTING DEEP CONVECTION. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD SRI LANKA OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ESPECIALLY, PREDICTING QUICKER 
AND MORE INTENSE DEVELOPMENT OF 90B. DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAIN 
RELUCTANT TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM BEYOND 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTIO21 PGTW 081000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08JAN26 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 18.2S 90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 080900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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