ABIO10 PGTW 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/081000Z-081800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080751ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080951ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.2N 86.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 279 NM EAST 
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 071505Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A PATCH OF ELEVATED 
WINDS (25-30KTS) ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CONSOLIDATING, 
MERIDIONALLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), OBSCURED 
BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS PARTIALLY FAVORABLE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT, WITH STRONG POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C, THOUGH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) COULD HINDER INTENSIFICATION BY DISRUPTING 
CONVECTION. BOTH GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE ON A 
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD SRI LANKA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH 
ENSEMBLE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, PREDICTING QUICKER AND 
MORE INTENSE DEVELOPMENT OF 90B. IN CONTRAST, GFS AND NAVGEM 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAIN RELUCTANT TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM BEYOND 
35 KNOTS, WHILE ECMWF SHOWS MODEST CONSOLIDATION, ONLY BRIEFLY 
REACHING 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 
TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B 
(WTIO21 PGTW 081000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08JAN26 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 18.2S 90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 080900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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