ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.4S 152.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 81 NM 
NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING BUT ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). 
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES 
DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. DETERMINISTIC MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING SLIGHT HESITANCE ON 92P, WITH GFS AND ECMWF 
BOTH SHOWING POOR CONSOLIDATION WITH A BROADER WIND FIELD. IN CONTRAST, 
ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
92P IN THE SHORT TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
32 TO 37 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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