ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/071800Z-
081800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070751ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
4.9N 87.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 86.6E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071505Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A PATCH OF 
ELEVATED WINDS (25-30KTS) ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 
CONSOLIDATING, MERIDIONALLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC), OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS PARTIALLY 
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH STRONG POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C, THOUGH MODERATE TO HIGH 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) COULD HINDER INTENSIFICATION BY 
DISRUPTING CONVECTION. BOTH GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
AGREE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD SRI LANKA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, 
WITH ENSEMBLE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, PREDICTING QUICKER 
AND MORE INTENSE DEVELOPMENT OF 90B. IN CONTRAST, GFS AND NAVGEM 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAIN RELUCTANT TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM BEYOND 35 
KNOTS, WHILE ECMWF SHOWS MODEST CONSOLIDATION, ONLY BRIEFLY REACHING 35 
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07JAN26 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 18.0S 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 442 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, 
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 070900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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