ABIO10 PGTW 070830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/070830Z-071800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061951ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.1N 89.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 87.0E, APPROXIMATELY 632 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND AN 070105Z 91 HZ SSMIS PASS DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM 
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 90B TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, 
TOWARD SRI LANKA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MORE 
AGGRESSIVE THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 90B. ECENS 
STANDS OUT DEPICTING QUICK DEVELOPMENT. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE 
STILL RELUCTANT IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF 90B WITH ECMWF 
SHOWING THE MOST CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 06JAN26 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.7S 93.6E, APPROXIMATELY 331 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 062100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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