ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.8S 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 152.0E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 070258Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD 
OVER THE CENTER. A 062305Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF SHARP 
TROUGHING WITH 20 KNOT WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 
C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES 
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARD. THE 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME HESITANCE ON 92P, WITH GFS 
AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING POOR CONSOLIDATION WITH A BROAD WIND FIELD. IN 
CONTRAST, ENSEMBLE MODELS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
92P.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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