ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.8S 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 148.0E, APPROXIMATELY 122 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION. A 
060353Z AMSR2 PASS SHOWS MINIMAL CONVECTION AND A DISORGANIZED 
STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEAL A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 
C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 92P STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE 
EVENTUALLY TRACKING WEST TOWARDS THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. GFS IS 
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BUT IT IS STILL 
HESITANT OF 92P FULLY CONSOLIDATING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE GENERALLY MORE 
AGGRESSIVE ON THE FORMATION THAN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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