ABPW10 PGTW 060200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/060200Z-060600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.8S 
147.9E, APPROXIMATELY 123 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND, 
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A 
FULLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), 
CHARACTERIZED BY MULTIPLE FLARING VERTICAL HOT TOWERS IN THE IMMEDIATE 
VICINITY OF THE LLCC. A RECENT OBSERVATION FROM WILLIS ISLAND INDICATES 
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 8 KNOTS AND A SLP OF 1006MB. A 052325Z ASCAT-B PASS 
REVEALED AN ELONGATED AREA OF TURNING EXTENDING FROM HEAR BOUGANVILLE 
REEF TO SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. THE LLCC IS PLACED IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN END OF THIS TROF. WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS ARE PRESENT ALONG 
THE NORTHERN SIDE THE TROF, WITH 15-20 KTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-10 KNOTS, MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30C. GLOBAL 
MODELS SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT REGARDING DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, THE GFS 
INDICATES MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAN OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. 
DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES IN SPEED, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A 
QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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