ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/041800Z-
051800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041351ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041751ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04JAN26 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.1S 59.7E, APPROXIMATELY 276 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 041500) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.6S 95.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 96.9E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH OF 
THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN A 041420Z METOP-B ASCAT 
PASS, WHICH ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NEAR-CENTER WIND SPEEDS SURROUNDING 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY 
MODERATE TO HIGH (15-20 KTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S 
WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRANSIT POLEWARD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 041800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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