WTXS32 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 037    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 16.1S 59.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 59.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 16.4S 57.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 16.9S 55.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 17.5S 53.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 18.4S 50.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 59.1E.
04JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING
AND GENERALLY WEAKENING AND A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 040551Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25 KTS MAXIMUM 
WIND SPEEDS PRIMARILY DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN PORTION OF 
THE LLCC. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY T2.0/2.5 FROM PGTW, 26 KTS 
DPRINT AT 041200Z AND 27 KTS DMINT AT 041051Z. MAJORITY OF THE 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE 
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS MADAGASCAR OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. COAMPS-TC, HWRF AND 
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS MODELS ARE THE ONLY MINOR OUTLIERS, 
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLUCTUATIONS TOWARDS THE GALE-FORCE 
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION SHORTLY 
AFTER. JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED WITHIN 5 KTS OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 12 FEET.
//
NNNN