ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/031800Z-
041800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031751ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03JAN26 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.9S 63.8E, APPROXIMATELY 485 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 031500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.7S 89.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 91.6EE, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM 
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A 
CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 
031440Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) 
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 031800) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN