ABIO10 PGTW 031300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/031300Z-031800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03JAN26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.6S 65.5E, APPROXIMATELY 574 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 030300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.0S 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 89.9E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST, WARM (28-29 
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ON THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WHILE BEING SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED ON THE EASTERN 
SIDE. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 91S 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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